By officially denying the covid-19 danger while benefiting from other countries’ response to the coronavirus — and with Belarusians promoting social distancing despite Lukashenka’s denials — the Belarusian government has been limiting attention to its inability to deliver economic relief to those in need on the eve of the presidential election.

For Lukashenka, diversifying the relationship with the West is a continuation of the strategy of fighting for the length of the leash on which he is being held by the Kremlin. He will try to make this leash longer, to allow him to remain independent. For his part, Putin is likely to shorten this leash.