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This study examines how proximate conflicts shape public attitudes toward foreign countries. Using survey data from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan collected both before and after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, we leverage this geopolitical shock to identify shifts in public sentiment toward major powers. We find that favorable views of Russia declined in both countries after the invasion, with Kazakhstan experiencing a more pronounced drop. This decline is primarily driven by titular ethnic groups. Economic ties through remittances and media usage showed limited influence on attitudes. While Russian media portrayed the United States as responsible for the conflict, attitudes toward the USA remained stable. Meanwhile, favorable views of China increased substantially, particularly in Kazakhstan where China surpassed Russia as the most positively viewed foreign power. These findings demonstrate how populations respond to conflicts that have significant domestic implications due to deep economic, informational, and security ties, contributing to our understanding of how proximate conflicts transform societies in non-combatant states.
Hannah Chapman is the Theodore Romanoff Associate Professor of Russian Studies and an Associate Professor of International and Area Studies at the University of Oklahoma. Previously, she was a George F. Kennan Fellow at the Kennan Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the Karen and Adeed Dawisha Assistant Professor of Political Science at Miami University. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Wisconsin–Madison. Her research, teaching, and service are in the fields of comparative political behavior with a substantive focus on public opinion and political communication in non-democracies and a regional focus on Russian and Eurasian politics. Her book, Dialogue with the Dictator: Information Manipulation and Authoritarian Legitimation in Putin's Russia, examines the role of quasi-democratic participation mechanisms in reinforcing authoritarian regimes, and was published with Cambridge University Press in February 2024. Her work has been published or is forthcoming in journals including Comparative Political Studies, Comparative Politics, Democratization, Government & Opposition, International Studies Perspectives, International Studies Quarterly, Perspectives on Politics, Post-Soviet Affairs, and Communist and Post-Communist Studies.
Raushan Zhandayeva is a Political Science PhD candidate at the George Washington University interested in how people and stories travel across borders. Her core area of expertise lies in Eurasian politics, with a specific focus on Central Asia. Her dissertation looks at the strategic narratives produced and promoted by states during international crises and the impact of emotions on public reception of such narratives. She is particularly interested in the impact of Russian strategic narratives within the Eurasian context. Her methodological toolbox includes statistical analysis, causal inference, experiments, and machine learning, including text analysis. Before joining George Washington University, she earned her B.A. in Political Science and International Relations from Nazarbayev University and a Master’s in Global Affairs from the University of Notre Dame. Her work has appeared in PLOS One, Post-Soviet Affairs, and Communist and Post-Communist Studies.
