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The Geopolitics of Ukraine’s Ceasefire Talks

Join us for a meeting of the New York-Russia Public Policy Series, co-hosted by the Harriman Institute at Columbia University and the New York University Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia.


This event is online only. Register for Zoom. Watch on YouTube.

Join us for a meeting of the New York-Russia Public Policy Series, co-hosted by the Harriman Institute at Columbia University and the New York University Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia.

The war in Ukraine has entered a critical phase, marked by shifting military and diplomatic pressures. From the tense Oval Office confrontation during Zelensky’s visit to sign a minerals deal to debates in Europe over deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, ceasefire negotiations continue to evolve. Ukraine and Russia have agreed to a limited 30-day pause in strikes on energy infrastructure; however, a complete ceasefire remains a distant prospect as Putin pushes for broader concessions—including a full cessation of foreign military and intelligence support. How are Kyiv and Moscow adjusting their positions throughout these negotiations? How can we better understand the geopolitical maneuvering behind the ceasefire talks? What are the broader implications for European security and the global order?

This event is supported by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Brian Taylor, Professor of Political Science at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University; Director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs

Olga Onuch, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Manchester

Emma Ashford, Senior Fellow, Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center

Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL); Senior Fellow at CDDRL and the Center on International Security and Cooperation at FSI

Moderated by:

Joshua Tucker, Director of the Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia at New York University

Alexander Cooley, Claire Tow Professor of Political Science & Vice Provost for Research, Libraries and Academic Centers, Barnard College

Brian Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and the Director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University. His research is focused on Russian elite politics and the development of the Russian state, with particular attention to state coercive organizations, such as the military and the police.He is the author of four books on Russian politics: “Russian Politics: A Very Short Introduction” (Oxford University Press, 2024); “The Code of Putinism” (Oxford University Press, 2018); “State Building in Putin’s Russia: Policing and Coercion After Communism” (Cambridge University Press, 2011); and “Politics and the Russian Army: Civil-Military Relations,1689-2000” (Cambridge University Press, 2003).

Olga Onuch (DPhil, Oxford), is Professor (Chair) in Comparative and Ukrainian Politics at the University of Manchester. Onuch has held research posts at the University of Toronto (2010-2011), the University of Oxford (2011-2014), and Harvard University (2013-2014). Since 2014, in addition to her post at UoM, Prof. Onuch was: an Associate Member (Politics) of Nuffield College at the University of Oxford (2014-2021), a Fellow at the Davis Center at the University of Harvard (2017), a Visiting Professor at Universidad Di Tella (2019-2020), and a Senior Research Associate at CERES, Munk School at the University of Toronto (2021). A scholar of comparative politics of eastern Europe and Latin America Onuch’s work looks at the motivations driving citizens to vote, protest, and/or migrate and factors related to their media consumption, as well as identity formation and policy preferences.Onuch’s research demonstrates that civic identity and duty (or its absence) is central in shaping political behavior in democratizing contexts. Onuch’s comparative study of engagement and democratic civic duty has made her a leading expert in Ukrainian and Argentine politics specifically, but also in east European Comparative Politics and inter-regional comparative analysis. Onuch is the author of two books, Mapping Mass Mobilization and The Zelensky Effect (co-authored with Henry Hale). Prof. Onuch is the Lead and UK Principle Investigator of MOBILISE “Determinants of ‘Mobilisation’ at Home and Abroad: Analysing the Micro- Foundations of Out-Migration & Mass Protest”. Her research regularly appears in leading media outlets (The Washington Post, The Times, The Guardian, BBC, ITV, Al Jazeera, and AFP, among others).

Emma Ashford is a Senior Fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center. She works on a variety of issues related to the future of U.S foreign policy, international security, and the politics of global energy markets. She has expertise in the politics of Russia, Europe, and the Middle East. Ashford is also a nonresident fellow at the Modern War Institute at West Point, and an adjunct assistant professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University.

 Kathryn Stoner is the Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), and a Senior Fellow at CDDRL and the Center on International Security and Cooperation at FSI. From 2017 to 2021, she served as FSI’s Deputy Director. She is Professor of Political Science (by courtesy) at Stanford and she teaches in the Department of Political Science, and in the Program on International Relations, as well as in the Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy Program. She is also a Senior Fellow (by courtesy) at the Hoover Institution.

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